Understanding wRAA

As Chris explained in an earlier post, commonly used statistics such as batting average, slugging percentage, OBP and OPS all combine to give us a pretty good overview of a hitter. However, it is important to note that all of these stats have their flaws. In batting average, every hit counts the same and walks or other non-hit on base situations are not considered. Slugging percentage differentiates between hits but in a flawed way (a double is arbitrarily worth twice as much as a single) and it also does not include walks. OBP includes walks but like batting average fails to differentiate between hits. OPS tends to overvalue hits while undervaluing walks. So how do we decide which of these stats is the most accurate. The answer is none of the above, and the solution to the problem comes in the form of a statistic called weighted on-base average, or wOBA.

wOBA weights each game event by the ability to produce runs. By weighting each possible outcome of a plate appearance, one can get a true measure of offensive production. The weights of particular situations vary from year to year. A double might be worth a certain amount of runs one year but a different amount the next. The value of the play is determined by the environmental factor for that particular season. For example, in a high scoring season or stadium, it is more likely that a single or double will produce a run than in a lower scoring season/stadium. Whatever is causing this spike in runs, whether it be the pitching that season or something else, makes is more likely that the upcoming hitter will be able to drive in the run. A player might have a higher OPS than another player yet have a lower wOBA than that same player. This is because wOBA takes into account baserunning and places a higher importance on OBP.

As interesting as wOBA might seem, it is only the primer for the more important statistic, weighted runs above average, or wRAA. wRAA measure the number of offensive runs a player contributes to a team. Zero denotes the league average, so anyone contributing a positive value is an above average hitter. wRAA is a counting statistic like runs, so players accrue as the season goes on. It can be calculated by simply using the following formula: wRAA = ((wOBA-league wOBA)/Scale)*Plate Appearances. The scale is used to account for different run environments and is usually around 1.15. Since the number is adjusted so you can use it to compare players from different leagues and years.

Looking at wRAA since 2000, the names at the top of the list will not surprise you: Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Todd Helton, Manny Ramirez, Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones. Pujols has contributed 616 runs to his team since 2000. Jones, who ranks 7th on this list, has contributed 393. This gives a great idea of just how special of a player Pujols has been for the Cardinals. Now for the fun part. Cristian Guzman has taken away 107 runs since 2000. Omar Visquel, as good of a fielder he has been, has taken away 91 runs. The other three players who have taken away more than 80 runs are Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Lopez and Orlando Cabrera.

For the 2011 season only, as expected Jose Bautista leads the majors with 38 runs contributed. Other top names on the list are Matt Kemp, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez. It should not surprise you that these players are the ones most commonly talked about as having stellar seasons. Looking at the other side, Chone Figgins has been the most worthless hitter in baseball, taking away 19 runs. Miguel Tejada, Alcides Escobar, Alex Rios, Mark Ellis and Dan Uggla have all taken away more than 12 runs.

In the last two weeks, we have gone over how to most accurately measure the performance of a player not only at the plate but also in the field. Next week, we’ll combine these two statistics and discuss the one stat that gives us the most telling reflection of overall player performance.

 

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One Response to “Understanding wRAA”
  1. rtuck says:

    Just like SA, OPS and Isop, the w… formulae are also flawed formula.

    And even BA is improperly identified. It is actually hitting average — and batting average can not be formulated because their are instance of batters getting on base that can not be statistically identified by “batting average”.

    However ther big culprit in baseball stats is SA. For instance Ruth supposedly has the greatest career SA at .690. It is actually .504, but based on a perfect SA of 1.000 as it should be,not 4.000.

    If there is doubt, doesn’t the average of one base(a single)in one at-bat reflect a traditional SA of 1.000? And in gaining a single a batter had to run down the baseline 90 feet to reach first base safely.

    So how does baseball interpret Ruth’s .690 SA which reflects only an average of 69% of a single and running an average of only 62.1 feet down the first base path before being thrown out at first.

    And since “SA” is used in OPS, it is also grossly miscalculated.

    Pertaining to ISOP, it is meaningless because it is also a result of a flawed formula. Ruth’s ISOP of .34766 will not correlate with the other components of his batting record. But,.33879 will —meaning he had a true SA of .50409 from 33,596 base opportunities in 8,399 at-bats, from 2873 hits and a hitting average of .342065 — all of which correlate to reflect those actual bases he negotiated in amount of 5,793.

    Simply, 5,793 bases negotiated divided by 33,596 bases possible; then divided be .342065 hitting average equals a revised slugging average of .504089.

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